The Great Lake states are “purple” states. In other words, there is close to an even mix of Republican and Democrat voters. The biggest impact on election results is to motivate base members of the party to go to the polls to vote. The political trends taking place nationally can be seen clearly in the campaigns of conservative candidates Illinois 2014.
Typically the voters in rural areas tend to vote for Republican politicians. In urban areas voters are more likely to vote for Democrat politicians. There are deep seeded cultural issues that are the cause for this phenomenon. Urban neighborhoods have more black and Hispanic populations that use more social services. These are the very same social services that the Republican party opposes.
The key message from the Republicans is government spends too much money and burdens business with too many unnecessary regulations. According to this view, high unemployment and a stagnant economy are the results of a government that is too big. The most effective way to get the economy moving is get government out of the way.
There are core values that many people relate too. These values are expressed in various political issues. Some of the most important issues are restricting abortion rights, protecting the integrity of the vote through voter ID laws, and reducing the power of labor unions. Some Republican governors have had great success by ending public employee labor unions, enacting strict laws regulating abortion clinics, and passing tough voter ID laws. Some states have passed laws that have reduced early voting.
A major issue is the growth of government spending and government debt. This economic theory states that economic growth is inhibited by excessive government spending. The theory calls for austerity measures that reduce the size and scope of government. This is the only way to invigorate the economy according to this viewpoint. It completely contradicts Keynesian economics which calls for increase government spending to “prime the pump”.
For both left and right wing parties, the path to electoral victory is motivating their core followers to actually get to the polls and vote. Empathy is the biggest obstacle to winning. This is why Republican’s zeal to enact tough voter ID laws may very well backfire. Democrat party activists have become energized and motivated during an election that they might have ignored otherwise.
The historical trend is that the minority party picks up seats in congress during mid-term elections. There have been notable exceptions to this historical trend. The Tea Party by challenging mainstream Republican incumbents in primary elections has forced the party far to the right of the political spectrum. It has caused gridlock in congress. Important issues are not being addressed. This is irritating some voters who wish to see the two parties compromise in order to make progress.
These will be challenging races. Those running for office will have to rally their base voters in order to win. Voter turnout is the important determinant in predicting who will win at the polls. The party that motivates its base to actually vote will be victorious.
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